Real Estate Market Report – ZIP Code 98155
Location Overview
ZIP Code: 98155 Area: Shoreline/Lake City, Washington (North Seattle) County: King County State: Washington Report Generated: February 18, 2026 Report ID: RPT-98155-20260218-173045
Executive Summary
Market Snapshot
Current Market Metrics: • Median Sale Price: $865,000 • Average Days on Market: 12 days • New Listings: 51 properties • Sales Volume: 47 units • Price per Square Foot: $385 • List-to-Sale Ratio: 108% (selling 8% above asking) • Months of Supply: 0.9 months
Market Classification: EXTREME SELLER’S MARKET
Key Insight: 98155 is experiencing one of the most competitive markets in recent history, with properties selling in under 2 weeks at prices 19.3% higher than the previous month and 15.3% higher year-over-year.
Detailed Market Analysis
Price Trends
Current Pricing: • Median Sale Price: $865,000 • Average Sale Price: $892,000 • Price per Square Foot: $385
Historical Comparison: • January 2026: $865,000 median price • December 2025: $725,000 (up $140,000 or 19.3%) • November 2025: $710,000 (up $155,000 or 21.8%) • October 2025: $700,000 (up $165,000 or 23.6%) • January 2025: $750,000 (up $115,000 or 15.3%)
Price Acceleration Analysis
The $865,000 median price represents extraordinary appreciation: • Monthly Growth: 19.3% ($140,000 increase in 30 days) • Quarterly Growth: 23.6% ($165,000 increase in 90 days) • Annual Growth: 15.3% ($115,000 increase year-over-year)
This acceleration is 3x the historical norm of 5-7% annual appreciation, indicating a market in extreme disequilibrium driven by: • Interest rate relief (7.2% to 6.5%) • Severe inventory shortage • Tech sector compensation surge • Pent-up demand from late 2025
Sales Velocity Analysis
Speed Metrics: • Average Days on Market: 12 days • Median DOM: 10 days • Quick Sales (under 7 days): 38% of transactions • Extended Market (over 30 days): 4% of transactions
Historical Velocity Comparison: • January 2026: 12 days • December 2025: 22 days (45% slower) • November 2025: 24 days (50% slower) • January 2025: 28 days (57% slower) • 5-Year Average: 24 days (50% slower)
Velocity Analysis
Properties in 98155 are selling 50% faster than historical norms. The 12-day average represents: • Week 1 (Days 1-3): Listing goes live, 40-60 showings scheduled • Week 2 (Days 4-7): Open houses, offers submitted • Week 2 (Days 8-12): Highest and best, acceptance, under contract
This compressed timeline creates intense pressure on buyers to make rapid decisions with limited due diligence.
Inventory Analysis
Current Supply: • Active Listings: 68 properties • New Listings (30 days): 51 properties • Pending Sales: 31 properties • Closed Sales: 47 units • Months of Supply: 0.9 months
Inventory Health Indicators: • Months Supply: 0.9 (Equilibrium: 3-6 months) – Critical Shortage • Absorption Rate: 98% (Equilibrium: 60-70%) – Extreme Demand • New Listings: 51 (Normal: 65-75) – Below Normal • List-to-Sale Ratio: 108% (Normal: 98-100%) – Overbidding
Inventory Shortage Impact
With only 0.9 months of supply, 98155 has less than 1 month of inventory at current sales pace. This is 70% below the 3-month equilibrium that defines a balanced market.
Consequences: • Bidding wars on 75-85% of properties • Buyers waiving contingencies • Prices escalating rapidly (19.3% monthly) • Limited negotiating power for buyers • Sellers receiving 8-12 offers per property
Demand Indicators
Buyer Competition Metrics: • Multiple Offer Rate: 75-85% of sales • Average Offers per Property: 6-8 offers • Above-Ask Sales: 82% selling above list price • Average Overbid: $69,200 (8% above asking) • Escalation Clause Usage: 65% of offers • Contingency Waiver Rate: 60% (inspection), 40% (appraisal)
Showing Activity: • Average Showings per Listing: 42 showings • Open House Attendance: 50-75 groups per weekend • Showing-to-Offer Conversion: 19%
Buyer Profile (January 2026): • Tech Workers: 48% (average budget $850k-$950k) – Amazon, Microsoft, Google employees • Move-Up Buyers: 28% (average budget $800k-$900k) – Selling smaller homes, growing families • Out-of-State: 14% (average budget $900k-$1.1M) – CA, OR relocations, cash-heavy • Investors: 10% (average budget $700k-$850k) – Rental income, fix-and-flip
Market Conditions Deep Dive
The Perfect Storm: Why January 2026 is Extraordinary
Factor 1: Interest Rate Relief
The drop from 7.2% to 6.5% mortgage rates created immediate affordability improvement:
Monthly Payment Impact (on $865k median home): • At 7.2%: $5,900/month (PITI) • At 6.5%: $5,470/month (PITI) • Savings: $430/month ($5,160 annually)
This 70-basis-point reduction unleashed pent-up demand from buyers who were sidelined in Q4 2025 when rates peaked.
Factor 2: Tech Sector Compensation
January timing coincides with: • Year-end bonuses: $50k-$150k for senior engineers • Stock vesting: RSUs converting to cash • Promotion cycles: New compensation packages • Hiring surge: Amazon, Microsoft adding 10,000+ Seattle positions
Factor 3: Seasonal Anomaly
January typically sees: • 30-40% fewer listings than spring/summer • 20-30% slower sales velocity • 5-10% lower prices than peak season
2026 Reality: • Listings down only 15% vs peak • Velocity 50% faster than normal • Prices 19% higher than previous month
This represents a complete inversion of seasonal patterns, driven by: • Buyers rushing to lock in 6.5% rates before potential increases • Tax planning (closing before fiscal year-end) • New Year resolution buying (“2026 is our year”)
Factor 4: Migration Patterns
Out-of-State Buyer Surge: • California: 60% of out-of-state buyers (fleeing high taxes, cost of living) • Oregon: 25% (governance concerns, tax increases) • Other: 15% (remote work enabling relocation)
Why 98155 Specifically: • 12% cheaper than Seattle proper ($865k vs $980k) • Excellent schools (Shoreline School District) • Lake access (Lake Washington, Puget Sound proximity) • Transit access (Light rail expansion planned) • Tech commute (20-30 min to Amazon, Microsoft)
Factor 5: Inventory Drought
Only 51 new listings in January vs typical 65-75:
Why Sellers Are Holding Back: • Waiting for spring pricing (expecting further appreciation) • Locked into low mortgage rates from 2020-2021 (3-4%) • Uncertainty about where to move (limited inventory everywhere) • Capital gains tax planning (holding for 2-year exemption)
The **$865,000 median price** represents extraordinary appreciation:
Monthly Growth: +19.3% ($140,000 increase in 30 days)
Quarterly Growth: +23.6% ($165,000 increase in 90 days)
Annual Growth: +15.3% ($115,000 increase year-over-year)
This acceleration is 3x the historical norm of 5-7% annual appreciation, indicating a market in extreme disequilibrium driven by:
• Interest rate relief (7.2% to 6.5%)
• Severe inventory shortage
• Tech sector compensation surge
• Pent-up demand from late 2025
Sales Velocity Analysis
Speed Metrics:
• Average Days on Market: 12 days
• Median DOM: 10 days
• Quick Sales (under 7 days): 38% of transactions
• Extended Market (over 30 days): 4% of transactions
Historical Velocity Comparison:
• January 2026: 12 days
• December 2025: 22 days (45% slower)
• November 2025: 24 days (50% slower)
• January 2025: 28 days (57% slower)
• 5-Year Average: 24 days (50% slower)
Velocity Analysis:
Properties in 98155 are selling 50% faster than historical norms. The 12-day average represents:
• Week 1 (Days 1-3): Listing goes live, 40-60 showings scheduled
• Week 2 (Days 4-7): Open houses, offers submitted
• Week 2 (Days 8-12): Highest and best, acceptance, under contract
This compressed timeline creates intense pressure on buyers to make rapid decisions with limited due diligence.
Inventory Analysis
Current Supply:
• Active Listings: 68 properties
• New Listings (30 days): 51 properties
• Pending Sales: 31 properties
• Closed Sales: 47 units
• Months of Supply: 0.9 months
Inventory Health Indicators:
• Months Supply: 0.9 (Equilibrium: 3-6 months) – Critical Shortage
• Absorption Rate: 98% (Equilibrium: 60-70%) – Extreme Demand
• New Listings: 51 (Equilibrium: 65-75) – Below Normal
• List-to-Sale Ratio: 108% (Equilibrium: 98-100%) – Overbidding
Inventory Shortage Impact:
With only 0.9 months of supply, 98155 has less than 1 month of inventory at current sales pace. This is 70% below the 3-month equilibrium that defines a balanced market.
Consequences:
• Bidding wars on 75-85% of properties
• Buyers waiving contingencies
• Prices escalating rapidly (+19.3% monthly)
• Limited negotiating power for buyers
• Sellers receiving 8-12 offers per property
Demand Indicators
Buyer Competition Metrics:
• Multiple Offer Rate: 75-85% of sales
• Average Offers per Property: 6-8 offers
• Above-Ask Sales: 82% selling above list price
• Average Overbid: $69,200 (8% above asking)
• Escalation Clause Usage: 65% of offers
• Contingency Waiver Rate: 60% (inspection), 40% (appraisal)
Showing Activity:
• Average Showings per Listing: 42 showings
• Open House Attendance: 50-75 groups per weekend
• Showing-to-Offer Conversion: 19%
Buyer Profile (January 2026):
• Tech Workers: 48%, Average Budget $850k-$950k, Key Characteristics: Amazon, Microsoft, Google employees
• Move-Up Buyers: 28%, Average Budget $800k-$900k, Key Characteristics: Selling smaller homes, growing families
• Out-of-State: 14%, Average Budget $900k-$1.1M, Key Characteristics: CA, OR relocations, cash-heavy
• Investors: 10%, Average Budget $700k-$850k, Key Characteristics: Rental income, fix-and-flip
-Sales Velocity Analysis
Speed Metrics:
• Average Days on Market: 12 days
• Median DOM: 10 days
• Quick Sales (under 7 days): 38% of transactions
• Extended Market (over 30 days): 4% of transactions
Historical Velocity Comparison:
• January 2026: 12 days
• December 2025: 22 days (45% slower)
• November 2025: 24 days (50% slower)
• January 2025: 28 days (57% slower)
• 5-Year Average: 24 days (50% slower)
Velocity Analysis:
Properties in 98155 are selling 50% faster than historical norms. The 12-day average represents:
• Week 1 (Days 1-3): Listing goes live, 40-60 showings scheduled
• Week 2 (Days 4-7): Open houses, offers submitted
• Week 2 (Days 8-12): Highest and best, acceptance, under contract
This compressed timeline creates intense pressure on buyers to make rapid decisions with limited due diligence.
Inventory Analysis
Current Supply:
• Active Listings: 68 properties
• New Listings (30 days): 51 properties
• Pending Sales: 31 properties
• Closed Sales: 47 units
• Months of Supply: 0.9 months
Inventory Health Indicators:
• Months Supply: 0.9 (Equilibrium: 3-6 months) – Critical Shortage
• Absorption Rate: 98% (Equilibrium: 60-70%) – Extreme Demand
• New Listings: 51 (Equilibrium: 65-75) – Below Normal
• List-to-Sale Ratio: 108% (Equilibrium: 98-100%) – Overbidding
Inventory Shortage Impact:
With only 0.9 months of supply, 98155 has less than 1 month of inventory at current sales pace. This is 70% below the 3-month equilibrium that defines a balanced market.
Consequences:
• Bidding wars on 75-85% of properties
• Buyers waiving contingencies
• Prices escalating rapidly (+19.3% monthly)
• Limited negotiating power for buyers
• Sellers receiving 8-12 offers per property
Demand Indicators
Buyer Competition Metrics:
• Multiple Offer Rate: 75-85% of sales
• Average Offers per Property: 6-8 offers
• Above-Ask Sales: 82% selling above list price
• Average Overbid: $69,200 (8% above asking)
• Escalation Clause Usage: 65% of offers
• Contingency Waiver Rate: 60% (inspection), 40% (appraisal)
Showing Activity:
• Average Showings per Listing: 42 showings
• Open House Attendance: 50-75 groups per weekend
• Showing-to-Offer Conversion: 19%
Market Conditions Deep Dive
The Perfect Storm: Why January 2026 is Extraordinary
Factor 1: Interest Rate Relief
The drop from 7.2% to 6.5% mortgage rates created immediate affordability improvement:
Monthly Payment Impact (on $865k median home):
• At 7.2%: $5,900/month (PITI)
• At 6.5%: $5,470/month (PITI)
• Savings: $430/month ($5,160 annually)
This 70-basis-point reduction unleashed pent-up demand from buyers who were sidelined in Q4 2025 when rates peaked.
Factor 2: Tech Sector Compensation
January timing coincides with:
• Year-end bonuses: $50k-$150k for senior engineers
• Stock vesting: RSUs converting to cash
• Promotion cycles: New compensation packages
• Hiring surge: Amazon, Microsoft adding 10,000+ Seattle positions
Factor 3: Seasonal Anomaly
January typically sees:
• 30-40% fewer listings than spring/summer
• 20-30% slower sales velocity
• 5-10% lower prices than peak season
2026 Reality:
• Listings down only 15% vs peak
• Velocity 50% faster than normal
• Prices 19% higher than previous month
This represents a complete inversion of seasonal patterns, driven by:
• Buyers rushing to lock in 6.5% rates before potential increases
• Tax planning (closing before fiscal year-end)
• New Year resolution buying (“2026 is our year”)
January timing coincides with:
– Year-end bonuses: $50k-$150k for senior engineers
– Stock vesting: RSUs converting to cash
– Promotion cycles: New compensation packages
– Hiring surge: Amazon, Microsoft adding 10,000+ Seattle positions
The 98155 market is operating at historic intensity with properties selling in 12 days at prices 19.3% higher than last month. Buyers must act decisively with pre-underwritten financing and appraisal gap coverage to compete in this environment. Sellers have a rare opportunity to maximize proceeds through strategic under-pricing that generates bidding wars. This extreme seller’s market is expected to continue through Q2 2026 with gradual moderation as inventory increases in spring.
Adrian Willanger — Broker
MBA • LEED AP • SRES®
Kelly Right Real Estate
📞 206‑909‑7536
📧 Adrian@AdrianWillanger.com
