Mortgage Rates

The Consumer Sentiment report was the largest release in an otherwise light week. The report showed that sentiment has improved over the last couple of months. However, this improvement comes against the backdrop of consumer sentiment having dropped more than 30 points since January and remaining at relatively low levels throughout the year. With inflation remaining stubborn and impactful, it is no surprise that consumer sentiment has taken a hit. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has shed some of its weight but continues to reflect significant borrowing amid persistent inflationary pressures. There is strong speculation that another rate increase may…

Inflation numbers are in and came in much higher than expected. Even the core inflation numbers for both reports were higher than anticipated. Core inflation is intended to exclude some of the most volatile components, including food and energy costs, painting a picture in which the Federal Reserve will need to continue its tightening measures until inflation is under control. In particular, the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a significant increase above expectations, impacting businesses and potentially trickling down to consumers over time. The retail sales report also confirms that consumers have significantly slowed their purchases compared to the previous…

The FOMC Minutes and Consumer Sentiment report were the most impactful calendar items last week, further reinforcing the Federal Reserve's resolve to bring inflation down to its 2% target rate. While there is considerable speculation about another rate increase, recent analyst expectations suggest that the Fed will hold rates at their current level for some time. The Consumer Sentiment report showed a slight increase, largely driven by moderating gas prices, which have helped provide consumers with some relief.Consumer Sentiment ReportThe University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index was revised higher to 49.5 in June 2026, up from a preliminary reading of…

While the Core PCE Index came in at 3.0%, below the expected 3.3%, overall inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. With inflation still running above the Federal Reserve’s target, there remains room for rates to stay elevated or potentially increase over the next several rate decisions if the Fed remains focused on restraining inflation. The JOLTS job openings report has also revealed a larger-than-expected gap. Job growth across the board has been slowing, with growth concentrated in only a handful of sectors. The nonfarm payroll figures have also come in well below expectations, while the unemployment rate…

With a light week the previous week, only a few data reports will have any far reaching impact, with the M2 money supply and the Federal Reserve Balance sheet giving the most insight. The M2 Money supply has really only increased ever since the COVID pandemic, and has more or less kept in line with the rate inflation has been impacting the costs of many sectors. While the Federal Reserve balance sheets show a trend of increasing lately, it has shown there is still restraint by the Federal Reserve which is evidenced by the recent increase in interest rates. They…

Expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise rates to combat significant inflation have come to pass, with a modest 0.25% increase in the rate. The Federal Reserve has stated that it remains committed to restoring inflation to its 2.0% target, which will likely include further rate increases in the future. The rest of the week featured a light economic calendar with very few impactful releases, leaving the Federal Reserve’s rate decision as the primary driver of market activity.FOMC Rate DecisionAt its September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points, from…